Take me to your leader

There are further signs that the Middle East is in tremendous political turmoil. I mentioned a couple months ago that I believed we were on the verge of a major, major shift in the power structure and borders. I guess that is partially obvious from the regime changes in Afghanistan and Iraq, but then again...we have had changes in individual nations before that only changed who was leading the fighting (see Civil War, Lebanon, Iran, etc.) but the same nations kept fighting.
Now we have a lot of change compressed in a very small time frame. not just Afghanistan and Iraq but Arafat died, Sharon changing not just parties but ideology, Israel actually withdrawing from a highly contested area...these are not Grandma crossing the road, these are packing up and moving from St. Helens, Oregon to Syney, Australia type changes.
And now the latest in the string; Fatah dividing. This is huge. This conceivably marks a paradigm shift that allows even more militancy. I am sure some people will argue otherwise but I think the leaders of the breakaway faction are telling.
Sure, the old Fatah is hardly a model of restraint and reasonableness. The nepotism is not such a problem in a part of the world where that is the long-held political model, but the corruption that prevents any sense of justice is a big deal. Under Fatah as constituted peace is unlikely but remotely possible. There was a time when it looked like Arafat was ready to make a deal, but at that time the Israelis broke the peace. Still, it demonstrated that if the stars aligned just right, Fatah was capable of coming to the peace table.
The Future (the new break-off group) seems to be more in the mold of Hamas. It should be noted 1/3rd of their current leadership is imprisoned for life for previous violent acts. There is no visible remorse, no apparent belief that this was the wrong path. Why then should we suspect this group will be less violent?
Ironic, isn't it? Israel is making HUGE steps towards peace by dismantling settlements and the political shift and in response the Palestinians are growing more militant.
I am no political analyst, nor do I play one on tv, but I would suspect this will not boost the power of those in Israel interested in peace. Watch for more violence coming soon to a world hot-spot near you.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=1408714